Monday, February 9, 2009

Come on now, Republicans!

So "rescuing" states is a bad thing? I realize that, blogging from San Diego, I am not exactly a disinterested third party. The California budget is FUBAR. In any case, please humor me as I proceed.

Many States, not just California, are cutting back on EXISTING projects and services due to waining revenues. Isn't it simply "common" sense that Federal assistance would DIRECTLY save these jobs? The revenue is not going to materialize from the ether!

Now, I understand there may be some debate about the readiness for new projects and the contracting red tape that may be in the way of a quick start. However, in the case of existing projects, I don't see the logic in not providing Federal funds to the states!

Come on now, Republicans!

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Doldrums

We really don't have a chance at an economic turn around until people start to get comfortable about spending again - that includes families, and small and large business leaders.

We have a new inspirational president! That's one mark in the "pros" column.

Many, many people still don't have access to the credit they need. Here in So Cal, the housing market is being further negatively impacted because buyers cannot qualify for loans. I talked to two separate sellers that have had multiple buyers back out of deals because of a lack of financing. I didn't get the details, of course. Maybe these buyers were looking for more 100% financing??? .. or adjustable... balloon.. interest only etc.???? Maybe not. I know of others that cannot get car loans because they owned investment properties. One can argue that these are positive developments because banks are getting back to limiting risk. One can also argue that the pendulum has swung too far in that direction. Remember, banks strangulated the depression-era economy with limited credit. The evidence is indicating that this is happening again. We need to find a better balance.

Lack of *reasonable* credit is still a huge mark the the "cons" column.

It's looking like we're in for a very, very long recovery. I heard Paul Krugman forecasting an "L-shaped" recovery.. which isn't much of a recovery at all. I sure hope he's wrong.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Inciteful McCain

If Sen. McCain is not careful, he could go down in history as the candidate that incited violence AFTER the election is over! He is ratcheting up the stakes with his new robocalling strategy. What does he think his radical right wing followers will do if he loses? After he's told them that there's a terrorist headed for the White House? Where will all that hate go? It's shameful what this one-time-American-hero has stooped to.

The US Consumer Market is the Most Coveted

The US consumer may currently be down.....but certainly not OUT! It's frustrating to hear "conservatives' talk about the advantages of McCain's plan to cut corporate taxes to rates that are more consistent with the European average. As if that is the key to bringing business to the United States.

This is laughable.

Just as parents will pay more to live in the best school district, corporations will pay more to do business in the US. Why do the conservatives insist on putting our markets on par with the rest of the world? Isn't it bad enough that our blue collar work force is competing directly with the lowest payed workers in the rest of the world.

We need to begin to leverage the immense strength of our market or it WILL atrophy.

Friday, October 3, 2008

Sarah Palin

I don't care how "well" she performed in the debate! This person was a small town mayor just two years ago!

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Bail Out Concerns

A basic concept underpinning the current bail out proposals seems to be the government purchase of these distressed mortgage-related assets. This seems reasonable on the surface. My concern is how these distressed assets will be priced. In the case of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), I don't believe an accurate valuation is even possible right now. (IMHO) My recommendation would be to provide "rescue" funds to these banks based on an initial guestimate of value, and then do a future "true-up" of payments once the housing market stabilizes and a better valuation of these assets is possible. We simply should not (can not afford to) overpay these bankers for these assets. This is their mess.

UPDATE: Like most ideas, mine turns out not to be original: IMF Proposal

China, 100 years behind!

Based on the Melamine scandal, it seems China and its bourgining capitalism is about 100 years behind us in learning the importance of consumer protections in the market place. I suppose Upton Sinclair's The Jungle is not required reading in China.